Sometimes when I think about taking a position, I always find it prudent to see when I should have taken that position. I know should have, would have don't matter most of the time, but here they do. The time to clearly buy for this rally was in August - this is especially evident in my medium term chart below. If you are buying now, you are just riding the last of the tailwinds. The risk / reward ratio is out of the little guy's favor.
Short term still aimlessly wandering near overbought territory. Note that this can stay this way for a long time as it did in 2010.
Medium term rapidly reaching overbought levels. See in August where the time to buy was?
I marked the TSV on this chart. You can see we are not overbought by its standards, but the odds are getting out of our favor for buying here. I am a contrarian because I have found that to be the only way to make money in the market. I'm sure there are others, but I don't know them.
"Enjoy present pleasures in such a way as not to injure future ones."
Seneca (5 B.C. - 65 A.D.)