Friday, May 4, 2012

4 May 2012

 Medium term indicator has sharply declined the last two days.  It is not oversold, but if the market were to find a bottom before this surpasses the previous low (around .3 in mid April) that will be considered strength.  See the example from summer 2011 between early August and early October.

Yes, the Dow made a new low at that point, but there was strength in the majority of stocks (that was not reflected in the Dow) at that time.  This led to the rally that followed.
 The summation index is a new thing for this.  I must assume some of the same rules apply when evaluating relative maximums and minimums.  Obviously the indicator I use clearly does not have a 0 mean as this has accumulated to 25 within 1.5 years, but we have been in a bull market.
Short term it is getting risky to open new short sales.  I do not recommend buying on this indicator until we get a positive divergence (present low is above previous low) between its relative lows.
This summation index is showing a negatively divergent peak from the last two.  This must be considered bearish.  See the terrific example in July 2011 where this declined substantially and the Dow was right about the same point around 12750.

The next Bradley turning point is June 16th.  Could May be weak and then we rally mostly until the election on the back of QE4 on steroids or something?  Remember, anything is possible with irrational greedy or scared humans.

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