27 March 2013

 Slight increase in short term indicator.

Medium term has flatlined the past two days.

 The lower consecutive peak is bearish.

We will have to wait and see which way the S&P breaks out of this pattern.  Seasonal weakness really doesn't start to hit until May, but we are getting closer.

26 March 2013

 Short term bounced quite hard today.

Medium term slowed its descent.

25 March 2013

 I just made the last two weeks the last reading I had because I wasn't able to enter the values.  Sorry, but at least we can see where we currently are.  Not oversold in the short term, but showing a little weakness.

 Medium term appears to have turned down.

This one doesn't require me entering values so is the actual data.  Not much of a rally in my indicators the past few weeks despite the indexes staying elevated.  This should catch up with the indexes eventually.


Every person is guilty of all the good he didn't do.
Voltaire

19 March 2013

I'm offshore right now so I don't have access to my usual software to produce my indicators.

However, the two lower peaks on each represent significant weakness.  However, although March is usually somewhat weak, April is usually good until we get closer to May.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYSI&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p72778353939

Good luck.

9 March 2013

 Medium term still bouncing.

Short term is also resilient.

I won't be posting much the following two weeks.  I have other priorities.

Four years ago today marks the last significant bottom for the major indexes.  Of course, the breadth indexes  bottomed months earlier in November of 2008.

7 March 2013

 Long term inched slightly downward today - likely the lag from the sell off two weeks ago.

 Short term is in suspended animation.

Medium still severely lagging price action.

America lost another member of the Greatest Generation today.  RIP Grandpa Charlie.  I love you.

6 March 2013

New highs are trying to get back to recent levels.  We will see if they can keep up with the thin Dow.

 Long term might remains insanely overbought.

 Medium term shows the exodus that has occurred since early February that is transparent if you look at the Dow.  But the media loves proclaiming that the Dow is at a new record never mind that it's down in terms of gold, silver, and gas about 90% the last decade.  The first great depression occurred under a gold standard which also had a 90% decline against dollars which were redeemable in gold.

At least that time we weren't lying to ourselves and stealing from the populace via inflation for building drone aircraft, invading people to free them, and locking up non-violent drug users for prison slave labor.

Short term slowed slightly today.

I remember a few years ago someone posted that the Dow was making a megaphone pattern.  I didn't really believe it at the time, but here we are at levels higher than 2007.  Shows what a great investor and trader I am, huh?  Anyways, if that pattern holds true, we would expect lower lows than 2009 lows, and it doesn't look like we've reached the high yet either.

"The cholesterol-lowering fiasco for a long time centered on the ability of unsaturated oils to slightly lower serum cholesterol. For years, the mechanism of that action wasn't known, which should have suggested caution. Now, it seems that the effect is just one more toxic action, in which the liver defensively retains its cholesterol, rather than releasing it into the blood. Large scale human studies have provided overwhelming evidence that whenever drugs, including the unsaturated oils, were used to lower serum cholesterol, mortality increased, from a variety of causes including accidents, but mainly from cancer. 


Since the l930s, it has been clearly established that suppression of the thyroid raises serum cholesterol (while increasing mortality from infections, cancer, and heart disease), while restoring the thyroid hormone brings cholesterol down to normal. In this situation, however, thyroid isn't suppressing the synthesis of cholesterol, but rather is promoting its use to form hormones and bile salts. When the thyroid is functioning properly, the amount of cholesterol in the blood entering the ovary governs the amount of progesterone being produced by the ovary, and the same situation exists in all steroid-forming tissues, such as the adrenal glands and the brain. Progesterone and its precursor, pregnenolone, have a generalized protective function: antioxidant, anti-seizure, antitoxin, anti-spasm, anti-clot, anti-cancer, pro-memory, pro-myelination, pro-attention, etc. Any interference with the formation of cholesterol will interfere with all of these exceedingly important protective functions. "
Ray Peat

5 March 2013

 The McClellan Index 55 day RSI finally fell out of overbought territory.  It looks like we've reached a temporary slowing point in the decline of the index itself.  Notice that we have seen slight distribution behind the scenes since early February as some of the worst performing stocks (since 2009) that make up the large indexes rally.

My short term indexes are pretty much back in overbought territory.  The medium and long term never left.

"That the sons of God saw the daughters of men that they were fair; and they took them wives of all which they chose."

Genesis 6:2

4 March 2013

 To those buying today, good luck.  The long term indicator doesn't agree.

 Short term slowed a bit today.  Neither overbought nor oversold.

The medium term indicator has not responded as well as the short term indicator yet.

Conney et al. (1961) demonstrated that animals having the ability to synthesize their own vitamin C could produce about 10 times more than their baseline levels when subjected to enough biochemical stress, such as from drugs. This automatic ability to adequately step up vitamin C production in the face of stress explains why so many wild animals tend to live healthy for their entire life spans until it is time to die. Conversely, generally vitamin C-depleted human beings will typically spend at least half of their lifetimes coping with one or more chronic diseases.

The specific genetic defect that prevents humans from internally synthesizing vitamin C is the lack of a liver enzyme known as L-gulonolactone oxidase (GLO). GLO is the last of a sequence of liver enzymes that ultimately transforms glucose (blood sugar) into vitamin C. Interestingly, the actual GLO genome, or sequence of coding DNA, has been identified to be present in humans (Nishikimi et al., 1988). For unclear reasons, this segment of human DNA remains "untranslated," meaning the recipe for GLO is present in the human but remains unprepared. 

3 March 2013

"Political tags - such as royalist, communist, democrat, populist, fascist, liberal, conservative, and so forth - are never basic criteria. The human race divides politically into those who want people to be controlled and those who have no such desire. The former are idealists acting from highest motives for the greatest good of the greatest number. The latter are surly curmudgeons, suspicious and lacking in altruism. But they are more comfortable neighbors than the other sort."
Robert A. Heinlein