Monday, April 2, 2012

2 Apr 2012

 I invented this today.  This is all time accumulation of my "zero" mean medium term indicator.  Guess what stands out?
This is my all time accumulation of my "zero" mean short term indicator.  Guess what again stands out?

Yes, these are both very similar to a cumulative advance/decline line.

I've been trying to figure out a way to calculate the optimal time to close short sales.  Obviously, there is a profit point where risking staying in the position is not worth it.  If anyone has a spreadsheet model already built for a declining rate of return, please send me an email.

For example, shares sold at $10 go to $2.  An 80% gain.  Yeah, it likely won't retrace most of that and make a 500% gain quickly, but in order to get ten more percent, the shares have to decline 50% from $2 to $1.  I am guessing there is a point where the return really starts to flatten out, and I would like to know its value.

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